Source: CICC strategy

Abstract

Abstract

During the May Day holiday in mainland China, major stock markets around the world generally rose, especially China-related assets. The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 8% and 5% respectively in May, while the US dollar index and US bond yields both declined. Judging from the major overseas events, the US non-farm payrolls data in April was lower than expected, the FOMC meeting kept the US benchmark interest rate unchanged, and investors' expectations of the Fed rate cut this year rose again. On the domestic side, the macro environment facing the market is relatively friendly. In April, the PMI data continued to be above the rise and fall line. At the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April set a positive tone. After the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities have further optimized and adjusted their housing policies. During the May Day period, the domestic service consumption data performed well, and the consumption and travel data were strong.

Looking forward, considering the current low overall valuation of A shares, historical vertical and horizontal comparisons with major global markets, we believe that the repair market of A shares is still expected to continue, and the market opportunities outweigh the risks. combined with the domestic and foreign environment during the May Day holiday, we believe that A shares are expected to have a "good start" after the festival.

In terms of allocation, combined with the statement of the real estate sector at the recent meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the relevant sectors are still expected to have phased performance in the future, and it is necessary to grasp the allocation rhythm combined with the implementation of policies; the TMT field driven by the expectation of scientific and technological progress and the catalysis of new productivity policies is still expected to have relative performance in the medium term. External factors and supply clearing bring opportunities for the upstream resource goods industry, continue to pay attention to gold, petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals and other resource sectors; capital market reform has brought new catalysis to the financial sector, and investors' attention has increased in stages.

Text

Text

A-share is expected to get off to a good start after the festival.

Market review

The index fluctuated higher and trading rose. The manufacturing PMI data released before May Day were slightly better than market expectations, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee released positive signals, some cities relaxed real estate policy, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the overseas Federal Reserve rose. Affected by positive internal and external factors, the A-share market rose in shock and rose in the first two trading days, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.5%. Investors' risk appetite continued to pick up, with the average daily turnover rising to about 1.1 trillion yuan before the festival, and a net inflow of northward capital of about 2.3 billion yuan. In terms of style, the CSI 300, which is more blue-chip, rose 0.6%, the growth gem index and Kechuang 50 rose 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively, and the smaller CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 rose 1.5% and 2.1%, respectively. The dividend index of the CSI fell back 0.7%. At the industry level, under the background of the improvement of fundamentals and policy expectations, the real estate industry led the rise, home appliances and basic chemicals also performed well; the previous growth rate of non-ferrous metals, construction, petrochemical and other industries did not perform well.

Market outlook

A-share after the festival is expected to "get off to a good start", risk appetite continues to repair. During the May Day holiday in mainland China, major stock markets around the world generally rose, especially China-related assets. The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 8% and 5% respectively in May, while the US dollar index and US bond yields both declined.

Judging from the major overseas events, the new non-farm payrolls data in the United States in April was lower than expected, the FOMC meeting kept the US benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the statement of the meeting also released a dovish signal. Investors' expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut this year are rising again, and the number of interest rate cuts implied by the CME Federal Reserve is two times this year.

On the domestic side, the macro environment faced by the market is relatively friendly. In April, the PMI data continued to be above the rise and fall line, and the economy was in the stage of stabilizing and recovering. at the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April set a positive tone, affirming the recovery of the economy and emphasizing "taking advantage of the situation" and "avoiding tightening before loosening". The real estate side pointed out that "new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market should be combined." "overall study the policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development." after the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities have further optimized and adjusted their housing policies. Financial and capital markets put forward "actively develop venture capital, strengthen patient capital" and "take multiple measures to promote the healthy development of the capital market". During the May Day holiday, domestic service consumption data performed well, consumption and travel data were strong, and the average daily passenger volume of roads, railways and civil aviation was higher than that of the same period in 2019. Tourists and ticket income from popular cities and regions, and the national movie box office also increased compared with 2019.

Looking forward, considering the current low overall valuation of A shares, historical vertical and horizontal comparisons with major global markets, we believe that the repair market of A shares is still expected to continue, and the market opportunities outweigh the risks. combined with the domestic and foreign environment during the May Day holiday, we believe that A shares are expected to have a "good start" after the festival.

In terms of allocation, combined with the statement of the real estate sector at the recent meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the relevant sectors are still expected to have phased performance in the future, and it is necessary to grasp the allocation rhythm combined with the implementation of policies; the TMT field driven by the expectation of scientific and technological progress and the catalysis of new productivity policies is still expected to have relative performance in the medium term. External factors and supply clearing bring opportunities for the upstream resource goods industry, continue to pay attention to gold, petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals and other resource sectors; capital market reform has brought new catalysis to the financial sector, and investors' attention has increased in stages.

In the near future, focus on the following developments:

　　1）中央政治局会议释放积极信号[1]。4月30日中央政治局会议召开，整体定调较为积极，肯定经济回升向好同时强调“避免前紧后松”，在财政端“及早发行并用好超长期特别国债，加快专项债发行使用进度，保持必要的财政支出强度”，货币端“灵活运用利率和存款准备金率等政策工具”。房地产方面要求“统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措施，抓紧构建房地产发展新模式”，资本市场领域则提出“积极发展风险投资，壮大耐心资本”。除此之外，会议对市场关注较高的大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案、新型城镇化、新质生产力等重点领域均有针对性回应。在研究经济形势和工作同时，本次会议决定今年 7 月在北京召开三中全会并确定主要议程，重点为“研究进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化问题”。

　　2）4月制造业PMI录得50.4%，连续两个月位于扩张区间，季节性因素影响下温和回落0.4个百分点，整体仍优于市场预期。供需两端来看，需求不足仍是主要拖累，生产端则小幅回升。

　　3）2023年和2024年一季度A股盈利同比略降。年报和一季报披露完毕，2023年A股盈利同比下滑1.4%，非金融下滑3.3%，上下游盈利分化进一步收窄，下游行业修复较快，上游及部分中游制造行业盈利表现偏弱，2023年全年上、中、下游行业的盈利增长分别为-15.2%/0%/2.7%。2024年一季度A股盈利增速下滑4.3%，或为全年业绩增速低点，非金融下滑5.1%，结构层面，上中下游盈利增长分别为-11.5%/-9.2%/3.5%，上游能源和原材料行业仍是影响盈利的主要来源，部分中游制造领域也仍需消化供过于求的问题。详细分析请见我们近期发布的《年报&一季报快览：盈利增速有望逐步企稳，下游先行改善》。

　　4）五一出行及消费数据。出行方面，4月29日至6日预计发送旅客1.4亿人次[2]，其中5月1日发送旅客2069万人次，创历史单日新高。假期首日预计全社会跨区域人员流动量超2.8亿人次，比2019年“五一”假期首日增长15.9%[3]。消费方面，国内主要旅游景区迎来较高人流高峰，中小城市旅游订单增长超越一线及热门城市；出入境游也迎来大幅增长，去哪儿数据显示，假期首日出发的国际机票预订量同比2019年增长二成，近百个出境游目的地的机票预订量超过2019年[4]；电影院人气火爆，五一档电影票房破14亿元。

　　5）海外方面，美联储FOMC会议维持利率不变，随后公布的非农就业数据不及市场预期，4月仅新增非农就业人数17.5万，创近半年新低，失业率小幅抬升，时薪增速放缓，市场降息预期有所升温。近期日元汇率贬值压力攀升，市场测算5月2日日本央行可能对汇市进行rouletteseries了3万亿日元规模的干预，对此日官方政府不予评论[5]。

　　[1] httprouletteseries://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0430/c1024-40227489.html

　　[2] https：//www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202404/content_6948271.htm

　　[3] https：//news.cctv.com/2024/05/05/ARTId3MeN6m2A2FYxrw5njKF240505.shtml

　　[4] https：//www.stcn.com/article/detail/1195240.html

　　[5] http://intl.ce.cn/sjjj/qy/202405/03/t20240503_38991176.shtml

　　行业建议

　　关注基本面边际改善领域。1）受益于国内产业政策支持、产业趋势明确的科技成长板块，例如半导体、通信等TMT相关行业。2）温和复苏环境下率先实现供给侧出清的行业，例如部分资源类行业、具备较强业绩弹性的汽车零部件，以及外需好转推动景气度提升的出口链相关行业。

　　近期关注

　　1）国内经济数据；2）稳增长政策进展以及落实效果；3）海外宏观政策和地缘局势。