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On the evening of April 27, more than a dozen listed securities firms intensively disclosed a quarterly report. As of April 27, nearly half of the A-share listed brokerages had disclosed their "transcripts" in the first quarter of this year. Under the influence of factors such as the shock of the secondary market, the performance of most securities firms is under pressure in the first quarter, and the performance differentiation between different securities firms is very obvious, while some small and medium-sized securities firms have achieved positive performance growth by virtue of excellent investment returns.

The positive impact of the policy superimposed on the merger of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities has made new progress, and there has been a relatively obvious rise in the securities sector recently. From the point of view of configuration, the head securities firms with competitive advantages on the investment side and the related targets of M & An are the main lines that are worth grasping in the eyes of institutions.

The differentiation is obvious under overall pressure.

Judging from the 19 listed securities firms that have disclosed their first quarterly reports in 2024, the differentiation trend of A shares in the first quarter of this year has brought great challenges to the securities firms' proprietary business. At a time when investment income contributes more and more to the overall performance, the aforementioned listed securities firms'"transcript" in the first quarter of this year shows the following characteristics:

First, it is obviously under pressure as a whole. According to Wind data, of the 19 listed brokerages mentioned above, only 6 have increased revenue over the same period last year, and only 6 have increased their net profit compared with the same period last year. Among the brokerages with declining performance, 12 suffered a decline in revenue and return net profit, with the revenue and net profit of most brokerages falling by more than 10%. Some brokerages have also achieved double-digit year-on-year revenue growth and double-digit year-on-year net profit decline.

Second, there is an obvious differentiation between securities firms with declining performance. Among the above-mentioned 19 listed securities firms, the revenue of the securities firms that declined in the first quarter compared with the same period last year decreased by 2. 5% from the same period last yearMyarcadepacman.66% to 44.11%, with a median decline of about 23%; the difference between brokerages with a year-on-year decline in net profit in the first quarter is even more obvious, with the smallest year-on-year decline of only 4.54% and the largest close to 80%, with a median decline of about 38%.

Third, the performance of some small and medium-sized securities firms is strong against the trend. Of the 19 brokerages mentioned above, 5 achieved double-digit gains in revenue and net profit in the first quarter of this year, and all increased by more than double digits; some brokerages continued to grow on the premise of a high base in the same period last year, reflecting a more obvious performance flexibility.

Specifically, Dongxing Securities achieved a revenue of 1.98 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 112.56% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 360 million yuan, an increase of 64.28% over the same period last year. Zhongyuan Securities realized revenue of 644 million yuan, an increase of 38.93% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 131 million yuan, an increase of 85.53% Nanjing Securities achieved a revenue of 882 million yuan, an increase of 37.21% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, an increase of 21.21% over the same period last year. The first Securities realized revenue of 564 million yuan, an increase of 29.85% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, up 25.22% over the same period last year. Founder Securities achieved revenue of 1.985 billion yuan, an increase of 11.97% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 784 million yuan, an increase of 41.06% over the same period last year.

It is worth noting that the main reasons for the changes in revenue and net profit of securities firms in the first quarter are closely related to investment income. Affected by the market situation, the floating loss of the fair value of financial investment of some brokerages led to a decline in performance. Some brokerages have achieved performance growth by virtue of the increase in investment business income, and there are obvious differences in the level of "stock speculation" among different brokerages.

Results of 19 securities firms in the first quarter

Pay attention to the head securities firms and the targets of mergers and acquisitions

From the perspective of investment, the current fundamental pressure of the brokerage plate has been expected by the institutions, and the future investment value comes more from the protection of policies and the heating up of the industry's own expectations of mergers and acquisitions, which has also become the layout main line that institutions pay more attention to.

On April 26, the news that the reorganization and integration of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities ushered in new progress directly promoted the rise of the brokerage plate. As of April 26, the brokerage index rose 6.32% in a single day, a new high for the day, according to Wind. Trading in A shares of Guolian Securities was suspended, but its Hong Kong shares soared more than 25 per cent, hitting an intraday high.

Based on the self-development of the securities industry, China Merchants Securities analysis believes that it is not appropriate to fall into excessive pessimism about the development of the industry. Whether they are comprehensive securities firms, small and medium-sized securities firms with research business as the core, or local securities firms that rely on local capital, deep ploughing areas and creating differences, they all occupy certain unique advantages in this round of industry clearing, and it is possible to outperform the industry and open the second growth curve. Looking to the future, with the confidence repair of the majority of investors, sustained high-quality economic development, reasonable and abundant liquidity, the market of the securities sector will not be absent.

Judging from the position situation of public offering funds in the first quarter, founder Securities said that due to the influence of pessimistic expectations such as business tightening, active equity funds currently hold significantly low positions in the brokerage plate. Guolian Securities mergers and acquisitions of Minsheng Securities and policy reports proposed to focus on building a financial "national team", the two major events are expected to correct excessively pessimistic market expectations, the securities sector entered the left deployment period.

As for the specific configuration targets, Guotai Junan Securities believes that with the recent introduction of the new "National Nine articles", new extension development models have been added to head securities firms to enhance their professional service capabilities, speed up the construction of first-class investment banks, and recommend head securities firms with competitive advantages on the investment side and targets related to mergers and acquisitions.

Review: Wang Chao

Editor: Zhang Diange